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»All criteria-based methods suffer this same defect, which I call
the 'Threshold Problem':
At what point does meeting any number of criteria warrant the conclusion that some detail is probably historical? Is meeting one enough? Or two? Or three? Do all the criteria carry the same weight? Does every instance of meeting the same criterion carry the same weight? And what do we do when there is evidence both for and against the same conclusion? In other words, even if meeting the criteria validly increases the likelihood of some detail being true, when does that likelihood increase to the point of being effectively certain, or at least probable?
No discussions of these historicity criteria have made any headway in answering this question. This book will.«
(p. 10, »Proving History: Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus« Von Richard C. Carrier (2012)).
Mit diesen Worten begründet Carrier sein Programm, die historische Methodologie mit bayesianscher Statistik zu ersetzen.
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